Combining Expert Opinions in Prior Elicitation
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Combining Expert Opinions∗
I analyze a model of advice with two perfectly informed experts and one decision maker. The bias of an expert is her private information. I show that consulting two experts is better than consulting just one. In the simple “peer review” mechanism, the decision maker receives just one report, and the second expert decides whether to block the first expert’s report. A more rigid peer review proce...
متن کاملAn Ensemble Approach to Combining Expert Opinions
This paper introduces a new classification problem in the context of human computation. Given training data annotated by m human experts s.t. for each training instance the true class is provided, the task is to estimate the true class of a new test instance. To solve the problem we propose to apply a wellknown ensemble approach, namely the stacked-generalization approach. The key idea is to vi...
متن کاملElicitation of Expert Opinions for Constructing Belief Functions
This paper presents a method for constructing belief functions from elicited expert opinions expressed in terms of qualitative preference relations. These preferences are transformed into constraints of an optimization problem whose resolution allows the generation of the least informative belief functions according to some uncertainty measures. Mono-objective and Multiobjective optimization te...
متن کاملStatistical Issues in Combining Expert Opinions for Analytic Hierarchy Process
The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is used as a modelling and solution tool for multicriteria decision making. The AHP breaks a problem down and then aggregates the solutions of all the subproblems into a conclusion. By breaking it down, the AHP utilizes the human ability to make sound judgements about small problems. (see Saaty 1991 and Saaty 1996.) The most creative part of decision making ...
متن کاملExpert Probability Elicitation Tools
of Terrorism Events (CREATE) under award number 2010-ST-061-RE0001. However, any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations in this document are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect views of the United States Department of Homeland Security, or the University of Southern California, or CREATE. Expert Probability Elicitation Tools Stephen C. Hora, University of Souther...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Bayesian Analysis
سال: 2012
ISSN: 1936-0975
DOI: 10.1214/12-ba717